Ancestry Magazine

Genealogical research in the past always meant spending days in archives, looking at countless pages of faded handwritten documents or searching through miles of microfiche. Record availability has always been an issue: were the records available and, if so, where? Often a research trip meant traveling thousands of miles to examine original records. Results were recorded on notepaper, in three-ring binders, on index cards, or on hand-drawn charts.

The past two decades have seen a revolution in both genealogy research methods and the means of storing the results. In 1964, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints started extending its massive library in Salt Lake City with thousands of Family History Centers in the United States and more than fifty-five countries worldwide. As a result, genealogists can now view microfilm copies of records from around the world by visiting a local Family History Center.

Since 1980, the home computer has become commonplace, along with personal computer applications designed for these systems. The first genealogy program for a home computer appeared in 1979, and many more followed. A company called Automated Archives released the first genealogy CD-ROM disks in 1990. Since then, genealogists have benefited from hundreds of additional disks containing genealogy information. Each half-ounce disk holds up to 660 megabytes of data, space enough for several entire books.

The Internet explosion of the late 1990s has had a major effect on genealogy. Transcribed documents of genealogical interest have popped up everywhere on the Internet. More recently, scanned images of original documents also began to appear in significant numbers. Databases of birth, marriage, and death information proliferated. Mailing lists and personal e-mail messages soon supplemented and even replaced the written correspondence so common among earlier genealogists. The Internet has popularized family tree searches. In fact, Time magazine even named genealogy as one of the four most popular topics on the Internet in its 19 April 1999 cover article. (Sex, finance, and sports were the other three.) Indeed, it seems online genealogy has “arrived” along with the twenty-first century.

Today’s genealogist has a wealth of resources undreamed of by researchers only twenty years ago. It is now possible to view images of many original records without leaving home. The profusion of secondary sources of genealogy information is staggering. Data can be stored, sorted, and retrieved within seconds. The click of a mouse can generate numerous reports. The technology boom of the past twenty years has not slowed. In fact, new genealogy products and services appear more often today than at any time in history.

Foretelling the future is always a haphazard enterprise, at best. However, one thing seems clear in the crystal ball: more of the same. Yes, we can expect to see expansion of databases at nearly light speed. What new capabilities will the next ten or twenty years bring?

Online Databases
Transcribed information will continue to be popular for many years. Many information goldmines around the world are awaiting their turn to be digitized. Genealogy databases will probably continue to grow in popularity as well as in size.

One major difference is that we will also see a huge increase in the number of scanned images of original documents available on the Internet. The plummeting cost of disk storage will make this space-hogging technology more attractive than ever. Within a few years, many genealogy databases are likely to include supporting documentation in the form of scanned images. We can expect to see scanned images of original documents become the norm rather than the exception.

Databases will also grow in capabilities. One major new advance is already on Ancestry.com’s databases and is starting to appear elsewhere: “sticky notes” can be attached to both transcribed records and scanned images. By attaching text notes to a record, genealogists around the world can help each other by corroborating information on a record-by-record basis.

For instance, a claim that John and Mary Smith had a child born in Bangor, Maine, in 1755 might elicit a comment from another genealogist that the town did not yet exist at that time. A third genealogist might point out that a family of the same name had a child born on that date in Massachusetts with the family relocating to Bangor in the 1760s. A fourth genealogist could add comments that the child in question filed a Revolutionary War pension application when in his eighties, claiming that he was born in Massachusetts but enlisted in Bangor, Maine. Everyone can benefit from the combined wisdom and collaboration of those who take the time to examine each statement.

Besides this asynchronous online collaboration, the use of synchronous tools will make it possible for real-time collaboration. If we add in the availability of inexpensive webcams, genealogists can even get their living subjects to meet face-to-face from the comfort of their homes.

CD-ROM Data
The present technology of CD-ROM storage of data will probably fade away within a few years. The problem is not a technology issue. Instead, genealogy CD-ROM discs will disappear because of simple economics. To be sure, the cost of manufacturing a single CD-ROM disc has dropped in the past ten years. It now only costs a few pennies to replicate each CD-ROM disc when manufacturing large quantities. However, the expenses of packaging, distribution, and marketing remain high and will probably increase. Today’s genealogy CD typically costs twenty or thirty dollars. Many genealogists are reluctant to spend that amount of money when the disc might only contain one or two records of interest. Even if DVD technology compresses data onto fewer and smaller physical disks, the same distribution factors will keep costs and prices unattractively high.

The economics of online databases is almost the opposite of CD-ROM disks. Packaging and distribution of online data is much, much cheaper than that of disks, and the user shares the savings. For instance, some vendors charge money only for “hits;” that is, if the database does not contain information of interest, the charges are minimal or perhaps even zero. Other vendors charge a flat fee to access millions of records for a defined period of time. The same number of records would fill hundreds of discs with a purchase price of thousands of dollars. The manufacturer benefits because thousands of people will find online services more affordable than discs. In short, online access is generally much more cost-effective than access to the same data on disks.

Finally, the almost universal adoption of broadband makes online access much more attractive than disk-based data. More than 550 million people around the world are now connected to the Internet from their homes. The United States continues to dominate the Internet population with 166 million users, and 17 percent of those people (28 million) connect via high-speed broadband connections. Those numbers are expected to skyrocket globally as broadband access becomes available in more areas. The convenience of broadband access to online databases will probably further decrease the sale of genealogy discs. As the World Wide Web lives up to its name, it will be the tool of choice for both vendors and researchers of genealogy.

Genealogy Software
The major growth of genealogy software occurred in the 1980s to mid-1990s. The basic requirements of storing data, along with definitive source citations, are well established today. Several products performing these functions were available by 1995, and almost all the remaining products have rushed to catch up since then.

In the past seven years, the genealogy software leaders have focused their efforts on making their products more user-friendly, adding more reports, and integrating Web-based searches and/or CD-ROM-based searches. The basics of recording birth, marriage, death, and other personal data have seen only modest improvements. This trend of slow improvements will probably continue.

Aligning with the growth of online usage, the greatest improvements will be in the area of Web integration. Genealogists will look to store and publish their data on the Web and compare their own internal genealogy database against large online databases for possible matches and additions.

Another area of improvement will be the integration of handheld computers for use on research trips. We already see this in programs like Personal Ancestral File, The Pocket Genealogist (for Windows CE), and My Roots (for Palm). As the wired world moves into wireless territory, the concept of information “anytime, anywhere” will become a reality for genealogists.

DNA
Undoubtedly, the new frontier for genealogy can be summed up in three letters: DNA. Genealogists today can already determine their ethnic origins with a quick cheek swab and a few hours of gene testing. The databases in use today at Brigham Young University, Oxford University, and elsewhere contain DNA samples of people with ancestry from all over the world. While no identifying information about the individuals is available in today’s databases, ethnic origins and localities can now be easily determined.

Going the next step, many family societies and private individuals are already offering DNA tests that gather identifying information about hundreds or thousands of individuals. The resulting databases can store long strings of numbers, called DNA sequences, for each individual tested. As prices continue to drop for both Y-chromosome (paternal) and mitochondrial (maternal) DNA analyses, the popularity of these tests will soar.

Today these databases can only prove that two individuals are related in some manner. They cannot give the exact point where each individual’s lineage meets that of the other person. Once the accumulated information reaches a critical mass, computers will be able to precisely match individuals who have similar DNA sequences and even to reconstruct the DNA sequences of deceased ancestors.

To be sure, computers will need much more power than what we have today. That does not seem to be a problem, however, given the yearly increases in processing speed. Just compare today’s home computer, which races along at about 2 gigahertz per second, against its ancestors of only twenty years ago that “crawled” at 4 or 5 megahertz!

These developments will make DNA databases an everyday tool for the genealogist, probably within the first quarter of the twenty-first century. New descendancies will be proven. Undoubtedly, some lines of descent that have been accepted for years will be disproved. Accuracy in genealogy will certainly benefit.

Putting this picture together, the crystal ball reveals a global community of genealogists that’s open to all. As fast as they can click a mouse, genealogists will scoop up transcribed and scanned original information online, from any location. They will confirm or disprove theories with irrefutable DNA records. The ease with which they will be able to assemble and publish accurate lineage reports will encourage many to add to this wealth of information and to collaborate with distant cousins. They may even gather in online “virtual” reunions with webcams.

As boundaries of time and space evaporate, the opportunity to bring ancestors and extended families into clearer focus will emerge for this lucky generation of genealogists and those to follow .

Dick Eastman, the author of Eastman’s Online Genealogy Newsletter, a weekly e-mail publication, is a frequent presenter at major genealogy conferences. He serves on the Advisory Board of the New England Historic Genealogical Society and is a past director of GENTECH and of the New England Computer Genealogists.